Sachin Agarwal’s blog

Constructive criticism and found delights 

Why I Returned My Palm Pre Plus To Verizon Wireless

I just couldn't do it.  Despite the solid hardware, innovative approaches, and possibilities of the platform, I just couldn't justify holding onto my Palm Pre Plus any more.  Using the phone required too many compromises and it wasn't worth the additional cost over the dumbphone I had lying around.  For the benefit of Palm management, here's a list of all the things that pushed me over the edge:

  • The touchscreen is atrocious.  Having to hit the call or hang up button six times for the press to register made me want to throw the Pre against the wall on a daily basis.  (This is probably something relating to the OS or memory or something, but when I tapped the touchscreen, it didn't work the way it was supposed to.  So I'm blaming the touchscreen.)
  • The battery life is atrocious.  The device would barely last the 16 hours between when I left for work and when I returned home.  If I missed a charge, the phone went dead.
  • The GPS is atrocious.  Apparently, this is somehow actually Verizon's fault as they're pushing people to their ten-bucks-a-month Verizon Navigator.  But I paid for Navigator and the GPS on the Pre Plus sucked just the same.
  • Having text messaging and instant messenger in the same app is clinical.  Yes, they're both text.  No, they are not anywhere close to the same thing.  If I wanted to receive IMs on my phone, I'd have the IM app open.  Singing in/out of AIM in the Messaging app isn't the same as just opening the IM app when I want to use it.
  • Copy and paste?  I'm told it's on the device in the user manual.  It never worked.  The iPhone does it well.  Palm should have just stolen Apple's implementation instead of trying to do their own thing.  
  • Editing text is atrocious.  Again, Palm should have just stolen the magnifying glass from Apple.  Instead, I have to hold down the gray (orange on original Pres) key and try to move the cursor slowly.  I ended up just erasing whole words and re-typing.
  • The apps are underwhelming.  Finding new apps in the App Catalog is an embarrassment.  You'd think Palm would be able to do a decent job with just 1500 or so apps.  You'd be wrong.
  • There was more, but I've forgotten them already.  That's how uninspiring the phone was.
As I wrote in my previous posts, I think Palm management was fixated on matching the iPhone on paper, feature-by-feature, rather than doing the smart/hard thing and trying to match the iPhone experience-by-experience. Synergy's ability to consolidate Gmail/Yahoo/Facebook address books, the card metaphor for multiple applications, the portrait slide-out keyboard: these are all home run innovations.  But they don't make up for the numerous compromises.  Most of my issues are probably fixable in software.  But I wasn't going to wait, and neither should you.  

Palm's management: get your stuff together or Sanjay Jha is going to pick at your carcass in twelve months' time.

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In Honor Of The Holiday - Dead Presidents Soundtrack

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Day Two With The Pre Plus: Yes, It's Grown On Me. But I'm Still Convinced Palm Wasn't Thinking A Lot

Day Two with my Pre Plus has convinced me that the Palm Pre Plus is a remarkable piece of hardware.  It feels that apps launch faster today than yesterday (or maybe I'm just less impatient); the community on Twitter has been exceedingly helpful with my very specific questions; and Synergy popping up a picture and name of a friend I've not talked to in months when she called was pretty neat, even though I know that's how Synergy is supposed to work when you link your accounts.

But I still can't shake the feeling that Palm is thinking about competing with the iPhone feature-by-feature on paper, not experience-by-experience.

One of the most irritating things about the Pre is text entry.  The keyboard is fine - it's not BlackBerry caliber, but it's not worse than the iPhone's virtual keyboard.  (It's certainly not *better*.)  The keyboard itself is a design decision that I won't quibble with, but the ability to edit text on the Pre Plus is much inferior to the iPhone.  On the iPhone, you can hold your finger down in the general vicinity of where you want to insert the cursor and a magnifying glass pops up to make placing the cursor easier.  This isn't available on the Pre.  If the Pre had physical direction keys, it wouldn't be a problem that the Pre lacked this functionality.  But it doesn't.  You have to either keep tapping until the cursor goes where you want to or place your cursor after the text you want to edit, backspace to your error, and re-type.  (Also, Palm should think about adding a d-pad for gaming alone.)  Palm decided to challenge Apple on multi-touch pinch and zoom functions; I'm sure they could add this functionality (or something exceedingly similar) very easily.  I'm convinced that the only reason they didn't was that they didn't want to draw additional attention to their main competitor.  However - leaving it out draws even *more* attention than mere aping does.

Using Launcher still takes some getting used to.  As Android does, the mechanism for additional apps is up and down, not side-to-side as on the iPhone.  But there are three "screens" in Launcher; one with apps, one with business tools and "premium" apps (like VZ Navigator and Amazon MP3), and one with utilities.  These are accessed with the more familiar side-to-side swipe.  In addition, the little white bars to denote where you are between these screens only make sense when you figure them out; I thought they were stylistic choices at first.  There was no reason for Palm to decide to go with vertical scrolling as well as "grouping" horizontally; it strikes me as a very "we're not Apple" decision.

Additionally, I cannot figure out a way to turn on the screen after it shuts off without opening the keyboard.  I know you can hit the power button on top, but that takes two hands.  Perhaps you could press the ball on the original Pre, but the Pre Plus' swipe area does not turn on the screen (and I think, on balance, Palm made the right call to remove the physical impediment in the swipe area).  Again, the iPhone's large home button turns on the screen and there is no easy analog on the Pre Plus. I find myself opening and immediately closing the keyboard before I start messing with the device.  Given the very sharp lower lip of the keyboard, this quick open-and-shut behavior is something I don't particularly care for.

 

Lastly, there are all sorts of things you can do on the Pre Plus that are poorly documented and/or not particularly polished.  Unlike the iPhone, I can make any song on my device a ringtone for free.  But when I do so, the Pre automatically takes the first 30 seconds; it doesn't allow me to pick the best 30 seconds.  (My solution: Jay-Z and Kid Cudi's Already Home, which drops immediately into the chorus line.  I purchased it using the on-phone Amazon store, which is a good app.)  You can add a webpage to Launcher (good!); you can't remove it from the Launcher menu in the upper left like you can with applications you add to Launcher - you have to know to hold down the orange/gray key and click the icon to bring up the option to delete.  Why treat webpages different than apps even though they act the same way in the Launcher?  One more: the lack of a scientific calculator on the Calculator application is pitiful.  I know the 3GS just added scientific functions, but it's been over six months now.  Furthermore, Palm could step up their game and add financial functions, reverse polish notation, graphing capabilities, and so forth with very little development effort.  

Let me be clear: this little phone is starting to grow on me, and I'll have a rundown of all the excellent things it does soon.  I give Palm credit for doing many, many things right on the Pre Plus.  (I can't speak to the Pre as I only played with it briefly in a Sprint store last summer.)  But as someone who's built a company with large entrenched competitors, I made damn sure that I did the best I could on the fronts I competed head on with my competition.  Palm, not so much.  The implementation of multitasking is great; Synergy, not so much.  The hardware fits better in the hand - as long as the keyboard is closed.  Standard USB connection is a win for consumers, but why have a cheapo plastic door?  

Palm feels like they're competing on paper in many ways and not on experiences, and the places where they fall short are more glaring than the successes that they've had in the places where they win.  

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Palm Pre Plus - The Best (Read: Worst) Example Of A Company Just Missing Opportunity After Opportunity I've Seen In Quite a While

I've had a dumbphone for about a year, and I've been chomping to get a smartphone for months.  I was talked out of jumping into something until the Apple event on Wednesday.  After it came and went without any hint of an upgrade to the iPhone 3GS, and having played with the Droid and Nexus One, I decided to take the plunge and get a Palm Pre Plus on Verizon.  The Engadget review of the Pre Plus was positive enough, and a quick hands-on at the Verizon store where the Pre Plus's browser performed adequately in my http://www.nytimes.com test made it seem like it was worth a shot.  

As the title of this post makes clear, the Pre Plus is a disappointment.  But it's a disappointment because there are so many obvious, simple, easily fixable things about the Pre Plus - almost all of which could be rectified in a software update.  It's clear to me that Palm management is just not thinking about the way that users will use the device; they're preoccupied with the Pre's specific, "on paper" advantages versus the iPhone.  The device screams "but, but, but... I'm better than an iPhone because of x, y, and z" in a way that even the Nexus One does not.

As real users know, when you purchase a new phone in a carrier store, the sales rep does the unboxing of the device to activate the phone in store before you leave. This was the first Pre Plus my store had sold, so I got to see the sales rep struggle with certain things even though he had clearly been trained on the device.  The first thing the sales rep tried to do was take off the battery cover so he could insert the battery.  Only after he struggled and failed with the teeny tiny little battery cover did he realize that he didn't need to do that because the battery was (thankfully) already in the device.  Yes, the Pre has a removable battery - better on a spec list than the iPhone! - but it's impossible to get to.  How impossible?  There are forum threads about removing the damn battery cover from a Pre.

After giving up on the battery cover, the sales rep turned on the device.  When you turn on the Pre Plus for the first time, the device prompts the user to set up a Palm account.  The rep gave me the phone and I created an account using my Yahoo e-mail address.  

I use my Yahoo e-mail address for all other sites that I register for - Amazon, Dawdle, oneforty, whatever - to protect my Gmail account from their marketing e-mails.  But the Pre is smarter than that - it has this magic called Palm Synergy that will automatically sync the Pre's address book with the address book in my e-mail accounts.  But the Palm account signup screen doesn't even tell the user about Synergy.  It's in the user's interest to use the e-mail address they use most when corresponding with their friends.  At the least, the prompt shouldn't ask the user to create an account with an e-mail address and password.  It should ask the user "what e-mail address do you use to talk to your friends?", then prompt for a password.  If Palm was really smart, the device should prompt the user for *all* his active personal e-mail addresses.  Synergy is smart - it's supposed to save the user from having to manually type in a bunch of information - but the hidden nature of this functionality at the point when it would be the most beneficial - phone activation and initial setup - is moronic. 

And guess what?  The ability to add a bunch of e-mail addresses in one place already exists on the damn phone - but Palm, in its infinite wisdom, forces the user to navigate to it.

After you create an account, the Pre Plus has a short tutorial that walks through the back and the up motions.  I actually needed this tutorial because these motions happen on the touch-sensitive strip that is *below* the screen, not on it.  Again, the fact that a user must have a tutorial strikes me as suboptimal.  To me, the right move is to assume the user is familiar with iPhone gestures and ape them.  Palm is the only other device maker that incorporates multitouch; they are able to natively handle iPhone veterans with ease.  There have to be better reasons to not follow all of Apple's precedents beyond just "we hate Apple".  And it goes the other way as well; the card metaphor is intuitive and useful for managing multiple apps, and one that Apple will have to beat if Cupertino doesn't mimic when they finally add multitouch to the iPhone platform; Palm needs to have the confidence to do the same.

After setting up the account and going through the tutorial, the device tells you to click the Contacts button.  Here's the default home screen, at least as I remember it (this image is from the Palm Pre Plus splash page, so I think it's accurate): 


At this point, I had to ask the sales rep "where's the Contact icon?".  It's the Rolodex-style cards.  Yeah, I haven't played with Rolodex cards in a decade either.  It's a terrible metaphor designed by 50 year-old men.  I'll blame Roger McNamee.  Furthermore, the Contacts application would sure be a lot more magical if the phone was hitting servers and setting up Synergy on the user's Yahoo, Google, Facebook accounts while she's going through the tutorial.  Actually, it'd be a brilliant reveal.  Palm didn't do that.

Speaking of Synergy, it sucks in way too many people.  My address book is now cluttered with old business contacts, ex-girlfriends, and people I haven't talked to since high school.  If Palm has full access to my Google and Yahoo address books and calendars, then surely it can gain access to my Inboxes.  It would be smart to only suck in the contacts of people I've corresponded with in the last six months or a year.  If Palm followed my advice and used their tutorial time to do some basic slicing and dicing of data, they could provide a magical experience by dumping the user into their Contacts - pre-filled with all the user's closest friends and contacts - before hitting the home screen.  The first time someone clicks Contacts, they shouldn't be prompted to add additional accounts; they should magically see their closest contacts.  All Palm has to do is ask for this information just a little earlier in the onboarding process.

Because Palm doesn't ask for the four supported Synergy account types - Yahoo, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft Exchange - before the tutorial, the inclusion of Contacts and Calendar in the home screen's "dock" are wasted.  Again, Palm management isn't thinking about the new user experience when deciding what to include out of the box.  When you get a new phone, every single wireless carrier fires off a free text message to the new phone when the phone is activated (either with a new or a ported phone number).  I asked the sales rep when my phone would be activated and he was like "I think it already is; didn't you get the text message?"  Well, on this home screen, you'd expect to find this magical text message behind the only icon that looks like it might have text messages - the envelope icon.  The sales rep takes the phone from my hand, clicks the envelope icon, and now is presented with a full list and snippets of my most recent e-mail.  I don't know about you, but I really don't like other people reading my e-mail.

The initial four icons should be - have to be! - phone, messaging (Palm's text message application), browser, and App Catalog.  The point is to get the new user in a place where she can customize her phone as much as she wants as early and easily as possible.  Three of these apps are actually pretty good.  Then there's the on-phone App Catalog.  Oh, God, does this thing suck.

I'm not going to harsh on Palm for a lack of applications.  The lead time on devices is long, and they reasonably thought that a smartphone with keyboard and a Centro replacement would be able to attack the iPhone from both the high and low ends.  Developers aren't going to jump to develop for a device that no one thei know owns.  Sure, their scary ballet girl ads were terrible, but Palm's a company run by men who haven't hit on a girl in thirty years.  And, yeah, the name of Apple's new device brought an onslaught of jokes, so they're not perfect either.

What I am going to blame Palm for is how poor an experience the App Catalog is.  The browsing experience is terrible - things are miscategorized and mislabeled.  Every search is terrible.  Try searching for [twitter] in the App Catalog.  The first five results are BuildaSearch, Glad Thats Not Me, Los Angeles Times, Glyder 2, and Manchester Evening News.  I have no idea what the hell their sorting algorithm is, but I know that those are terrible results.  If they have to hand-curate lists of the top 500 search terms - and you know [twitter] is a top 20 search term - then so be it.  It's unacceptable.

Lastly, the device is slow as molasses out of the box.  The first time you launch any app - even Contacts, Mail, and other apps that are in the default dock - it takes forever to load.  It's honestly faster to keep 20 apps running than it is to close and relaunch an app.  I don't know if it just takes the device forever to write to RAM or something, but certain key apps need to be pre-installed in memory so that they launch quickly.  It's how Apple gets Safari and Mail to launch so quickly; Palm needs to do the same for its core apps.

Again, nothing here is hard or impossible.  The battery cover is a pain, but who actually replaces their battery on a regular basis?  Everything else can be fixed.  Palm just needs to think about user flows - from purchase on.  They very clearly haven't.  And yet it are these chances to make first impressions that excite users - and developers.  I know 1.4's coming out in February with Flash support and who knows what else.  But what they need to work on in 1.5 are those things that get the benefits of the Pre Plus - Synergy and multitasking - in front of new users as soon as possible and as early as possible.  Palm's got 29 more days to win me over before I can return the phone and get out of my Verizon contact.  Maybe the device will grow on me, but I'm not excited about my new phone on the day I bought it, and that's a crying shame.

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New Blog: Meat In The Sky

I've started blogging about startup life, with some thoughts and actionable startup advice for founders and early employees at http://blog.meatinthesky.com.  I'll be focusing on the stuff before product/market fit.  This is the period of the most experimentation and the lowest burn you can do - it's the most perilous part of the startup process, as you're walking a tightrope without a net.

As for the name, see the first post.

And you can follow @meatinthesky on Twitter to be notified of new posts.

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Bring Back The Evening Paper!

Commodity national news is dead.  Newspapers are dying.  The AP wire on Yahoo News (or Google's more heterogenous and more cluttered version) and CNN.com are "good enough" that all other services providing "just the facts, ma'am" provide no incremental value.  Most observers recognize that this leaves a void in the local space, and predictably you see newspapers retrenching into their neighborhoods, fending off competitors like Outside.in, EveryBlock, and ESPN's local sites.

But newspapers have so much more than just news, and that's why I love to read them when I visit my family in St. Louis.  I find value from the comics, the circulars, the coupons, the crossword, and, yes, the columns.

But why do I only read the paper when I'm visiting my mom and grandparents?  Why, the NYT and Tribune executives plaintively scream, why oh why don't I subscribe where I live?  

My biggest issue is delivery.  At my former apartment in Chicago's Logan Square, I had no faith that any paper I paid for would still my at my apartment building's doorway when I woke up in the morning.  I even subscribed to the free Saturday Redeye and it never showed up.  My new apartment is one of those old houses in a better neighborhood near Somerville's Davis Square, and I'm considering getting the Sunday Globe and/or Times.  But only on Sundays.

But here's the other delivery problem beyond just getting what I paid for: when the paper comes in the morning, I don't have time to read it.  When it comes in the morning, half of it is stale the minute it hits the stoop because I read that information online the previous day and the other half is stale by the time I do have time in the evening.  It's completely useless to me (again, except on the weekends, where my mornings are leisurely and my evenings are packed).

But this can be solved with a change to the content and a switch in delivery time.  An evening paper that focused on analysis and columns, rather than the stenography that passes for reporting, would be fantastic.  I could indulge with 15-20 minutes attempting the crossword; I could read the comics over a cup of tea (or a glass of bourbon or whatever your racially- and temporally-appropriate stereotype is); and I could browse through columns and analysis of new and interesting topics that aren't top of mind during the workday.  

Giving up all pretense of presenting the bare facts of news would free an evening newspaper from the tyranny of the mid-day deadline.  An evening paper as I envision it wouldn't compete with the evening news hosted by Brian Williams, Katie Couric, or Diane Sawyer.  It wouldn't compete for the advertising dollars of incontinence products and life insurance.  It would be more alive and it would be a better vehicle for television, movie, and other entertainment advertising than the morning paper or the evening news.  

A new evening paper would require shunting aside any pretense of being balanced in favor of presenting a wide range of opinions (I think the Atlantic does the best job of this on the national blogging/magazine side), but it could easily be done given the newspaper companies' existing delivery infrastructures and brands.  

And that's the way it is.

One related note, since this is being passed around this morning: I don't in any way believe we are nearing the end of hand-crafted content.  Just read Ezra Klein, Matt Yglesias, Felix Salmon, Ta-Nehisi Coates, or any of the other brilliant writers who pump out fantastic free content with real, actual reporting on a near-daily basis, and you'll realize that at the national level, there's a plethora of great, handcrafted content.  (BTW, are there any female writers - aside from Digby - who I should be subscribing to?  Megan McArdle lost me a while ago.)

Maybe it's different if you're checking TechMeme every 15 minutes to see who gets "credit" for "breaking" some "story" about some "gadget", but the stuff that I read is great.  Hell, just follow Paul Kedrosky; it's like the dude was put on this earth to create and share interesting shit that's perfectly up my wheelhouse.

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Setting Pricing for a Startup - The Rule of 80%


In just the last week, two different people have come to me to get feedback on their pricing. One was a startup selling a very sophisticated product to corporate enterprises. The other was selling consulting services to individuals, small businesses, and trade associations. In both cases, however, the questions were the same: how should I price this on a per-head basis? When should I charge a flat fee? How do I make sure I'm not leaving money on the table? How do I make sure I'm not losing customers?

First thing I said was: you need to have a public rate table. I believe that people like to comparison shop, but that they only choose amongst those providers who make it easy to compare prices. If you provide a rate up front, you are at a substantial competitive advantage to your competitors who require potential customers to fill in a lead generation form. Second, if you have a premium product and you have a competitive advantage because you make it easier for customers to compare you against the competition, for the love of God, raise your rates. Higher costs are a signaling mechanism that you're selling a premium product. I can't find a link, but there's an apocryphal tale that Cadillac sales actually went down in the 1980s when Cadillac lowered prices. Traditional economics says that lower prices means you move right on the demand curve, leading to higher sales, but it didn't happen because consumers thought the lower prices were a signal of lower quality.

OK, now that we'd established better base rates, the question came down to how do we set the appropriate levels based on demand? Surely you want to have quantity discounts, especially for those parts of the business that are easily scalable. Well, to start, let's take a look at a business I know intimately well.

Here are my rates for business consulting and GMAT tutoring services (two wildly divergent services, one simple rate table):

Hours Per Hour
1-4 $150.00
5-9 $125.00
10 or more $100.00

As you can see, there's a substantial price break for pre-paying for more hours. This allows me to better manage my schedule and worry less about new client recruitment, and it encourages my clients to buy more hours as they get more "bang for their buck". It's a traditional win-win situation.

How did I pick my rates? Well, they just "feel" right. It "feels like" a good balance of encouraging larger purchases, but there's no real rhyme or reason. To me, it's like the golden ratio: it just "feels" right. However, it also turns out that there's a constant that shows up again and again in other successful companies' pricing. Let me demonstrate with pretty pictures:

Here's a graph of my consulting/tutoring rates:

As you can see, there are two steps: one at 5 hours and one at 10 hours. Everything else is constant. As you can see, at the 5 hour mark, my new rate is 83% of the rate for 1-4 hours. At the 10 hour mark, the new rate is 80% of the 5-9 hour rate. So the reduction in rates is very similar: about 80% of the prior rate.

Well, remember how I said we see this in lots of other places? It's really quite uncanny. Let's start with everyone's "it just works" darling, Dropbox:

Dropbox has a free account up to 2 GB, then paid accounts that go up to 50 GB and 100 GB based on payment. As you can see, the price per GB spikes once you need just a little more than 50 GB, but then it comes down to the levels from 30-50 GB. It turns out that you pay exactly the same amount per GB at 80 GB as you do at 30 GB ($3.00/GB per year) and exactly the same amount at 100 GB as you do at 50 GB ($2.40/GB per year).

Here's the graph for 37signals' Basecamp:

Basecamp comes in four paid flavors: 3 GB of storage for $24 a month, 10 GB of storage for $49 a month, 20 GB for $99 per, and 50 GB for $149 per. Again, you see the same spikes in yearly price per GB at the break points. Again, as you get into larger amounts, the difference for every marginal GB becomes relatively minor. Again, it's a bit asymptotic at the tail (in this case, in the mid-$30s per GB per year).

Lastly, let's take a look at Freshbooks:

Unlike the others, Freshbooks charges per client, not per GB, which makes sense as it's an accounting system, not a file storage repository. Freshbook charges $19 a month for up to 25 clients, $29 for up to 100, and $39 for up to 500. In this graph, I don't go all the way out to the "Starship" and "Time Machine" packages (seriously, guys, WTF?), but you can see the same spikes in per client costs at the 25, 100, and 500 client breakpoints that we saw for the GB breakpoints for Dropbox and Basecamp.

"But wait!" you say. "These graphs show spikes in the per-unit costs only at the break points - they're almost flat at the other points The graph for your consulting services showed troughs in the break points." This is true, grasshopper. Except! Take a look at the first few data points for all three. Notice something? At the small amounts, there actually is a substantial difference at each incremental GB or client (the lighter line). Let's look at these differences in table form:

Dropbox

GB Price Per GB % of Previous
0

1

2

3 $39.96
4 $29.97 75%
5 $23.98 80%
6 $19.98 83%
7 $17.13 86%
8 $14.99 88%
9 $13.32 89%
10 $11.99 90%

Basecamp
GB Price Per GB % of Previous
0

1 $288.00
2 $144.00 50%
3 $96.00 67%
4 $147.00 153%
5 $117.60 80%
6 $98.00 83%
7 $84.00 86%
8 $73.50 88%
9 $65.33 89%
10 $58.80 90%

Freshbooks
Clients Price Per Client % of Previous
0

1

2

3

4 $57.00
5 $45.60 80%
6 $38.00 83%
7 $32.57 86%
8 $28.50 88%
9 $25.33 89%
10 $22.80 90%

That's right - early on, there's a lot of 80-something percents in the per-unit differences.

So here's my rule: The rule of 80%.

For anyone selling on an incremental basis, set your break points that the per-unit costs of the new tier are 80% of the per-unit cost for the previous tier. If you're a consultant, whatever your break points are, charge 80% on a per-hour basis at your breaks. If you charge $1000 an hour, whatever your break point is - 5 hours, 10 hours, 1000 hours, make sure the per-hour charge after the break point is no more than $800 an hour. If you sell beer at $5 a bottle, make sure the cost of a six pack (the logical break point) is no more than $24, for a per-unit cost of $4.

If you're selling at a fixed price, it's a no more complex. You just must make sure that your break point from your first paid tier to your second paid tier is high enough to clear the 80s on the light line and it gets into the 90 percent range. If you set your second paid tier too early, before the dramatic savings in per-unit use peter out, your customers will be able to "feel" that you're trying to rip them off and they may not sign up with you in the first place. Once you give them enough goodies at the first paid tier, then you can feel free to ratchet things up - just make sure that your third and fourth tier ratchets don't kick in until the per-unit cost is at or below the limits of the previous tier. (Essentially, make sure your dark line is at the low point in the graph before you create a new tier.)

Well, based on this rule, it looks like 37signals is ripping users off on their Plus plan when compared to their Basic plan. Perhaps that's why they highlight the Plus plan - to avoid comparisons to the Basic plan in favor of comparisons to their Premium and Max plans, where the Plus plan does look like a fair deal. Or, perhaps, maybe the per-GB comparison is the wrong one. So let's take a look at the per-project comparison:


Well, shiver me timbers, but that looks just like the other graphs in the series: same severe downslope with humps in the dark line, same gentle curve with spikes in the lighter line, but no spikes until you hit the 90's.

Now, of course, I'd recommend that 37signals bumps up storage on their Basic plan, with the attendant bumps down the line, but hey, that's just me and my Rule of 80%.

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Which States Have the Best Startup Environments?

In my last post, I crunched the data to see where Illinois ranked on a variety of metrics related to venture funding for startups. Turned out that no matter how you sliced the data, Illinois came out pretty poorly. This poor showing was a pretty strong indictment of the infrastructure, leadership, and general environment for startups here in Illinois - as far as I'm concerned, whether or not you want funding, being able to get funded is an indication of quality infrastructure and a strong startup environment.

So the obvious question is, if Illinois is so terrible, which states are good?

In my analysis of the data last time, I made two claims: 1) seed/startup funding is the best stage to evaluate, because those are the first dollars a new team is looking for. I believe that new dollars for a new team is the best indication for general environment, given the small dollars involved and the less company-specific nature of seed investing. (Nevada ties for dead last in the startup/seed data, no matter how you slice it, despite the success of Zappos.)  2) per-capita metrics, while a bit flawed due to network effects, are the best option we have, better than aggregate dollars or aggregate deals because per-capita metrics control for the "California is the biggest state, so it should see the most dollars" objection.

So, I re-ran the numbers to see what states had the highest per-capita dollars invested in startup/seed deals[1]. Here are the results for the one-, three-, and five-year spans ending 2007:

As you can see, there's a clear "step" between Massachusetts and California and the next tier. There's more than double the amount of money per-capita in Massachusetts and California in 2007 than there was in Minnesota and Washington state, the 3rd and 4th best on the list.

For the three year period of 2005-2007, just as for 2007 alone, Massachusetts and California dominate, with significantly higher per-capita dollars flowing to seed and startup deals than the next tier of states (from New York to Virginia, which has a range just slightly larger than the difference between New York and California).

Lastly, here's the data for the five-year period of 2003-2007. Delaware is skewed by very high per-capita amounts in 2003 and 2004 (the state had $23.60 invested per capita in 2003 and $49.05(!) in 2004 [2] ), but the rest of the chart is generally in line with the one- and three-year charts. Again, Massachusetts and California are heads and shoulders above the rest of the states.

In all three charts, you see strong showings from New York and Washington, which I wasn't surprised by. What I didn't expect was the strong showing by states such as Maryland and Utah. I know that Maryland may benefit some from federal money, but if that was so strong, we'd expect a stronger showing from Virginia and DC as well, which we don't. As for Utah, I know the Computer Science program in Utah is strong, and there are a number of technology companies in Utah (Omniture immediately comes to me), but still - it's astonishing. There must be something cultural in Utah that makes startups there more palatable than, say, Illinois.

When I talk to entreprenuers that want to start their own technology companies, the first question I ask is "do you have a co-founder?" The second I ask is "how committed are you?" The third I ask is "if you're so serious, why haven't you moved to California yet?" Turns out the data says that I should amend that last question to "why haven't you moved to California or Massachusetts yet?" (This, of course, assumes that you can syndicate a seed deal among angels in Massachusetts as easily as you could syndicate a deal in California. Again, I don't have angel data - see [1].)

Again, comments welcome on the data, methodology, and requests for other cuts of the data.

[1] Now, of course, the data I had was only about VC firms' funding - it was silent on angels. Knowing this was an issue with the PWC MoneyTree data, I've spent a fair amount of time since my last post begging for angel data. [1a] But, in the end, no one could find angel data to send to me. So, at this point, I've given up on angel data. (If you have some, please send it to me.)

[1a] I even managed to get promised an invite to the psuedo-TechStars demo day here in Chicago (it was actually an independent event, put together because so many of the Boston summer cohort had Chicago ties), but I never received it, despite a flurry of e-mails the day of. Many thanks to Brad Feld for trying to get me in; boo to whoever was supposed to send me the official invite. (I had time/location, but I didn't want to crash without an official invite.) I really wanted to get a headcount versus the Mountain View headcount and see who showed up. I was going to take that list and try to determine which Chicago-area angels actually had done deals in the last 12 months. As far as I know, Apex's seed investment in Appolicious is the only one in the last twelve months.

[2] Anyone have an explanation for these two outlier years? Delaware comes in at $0.00 per capita for 2005, 2006, and 2007 seed/startup deals, so I'm guessing just a handful of deals - maybe even just one or two deals - skew this chart, especially as Delaware is a relatively low-population state. The PWC data I got from SSTI is aggregated; I don't have access to the Thomson database with the deals themselves.

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Illinois' So-Called Tech Leaders Have Failed The State

So, Chicago's lacking in tech leadership, says a columnist in the Chicago Tribune.  No, it's not, respond the heads of various tech organizations in Chicago and the State.  As someone who's founded a startup here in Chicago, I'm certainly more inclined to agree with the Trib columnist than with the panel.  However, I'm also a policy wonk - so I decided to take a look at the data to see who's right. 

After examining the data, it is clear that the leadership at DCEO, the ITA, World Business Chicago, IBio, the NanoBusiness Alliance, and the ISTC has failed.  While the organizations that signed the rebuttal may do many things, as they list in their bullet points, it is clear that the outcomes one would find from successful leadership just are not there.  What they're doing is not working, and there are no signs of improvement in Illinois' technology competitiveness, no matter how you slice the data. 

The best independent, objective data I could think of was venture funding data for startup companies[1].  The assumption, of course, is that venture funding is very highly correlated with technology leadership and serves as a legitimate proxy.  The focus on startups is because organizational leadership can most help the smallest of companies and early entrepreneurs as they jump into the deep end.  (However, I've presented the overall data as well to avoid charges of bias.)  Employment figures are fuzzy - you probably don't want to include CDW salespeople in a list of technology employees, for example.  I gathered state-by-state data from PricewaterhouseCooper's MoneyTree Report.  My source of data was the State Science and Technology Institute (SSTI).  SSTI's Venture Capital data site further breaks down the MoneyTree into easy-to-use state-by-state data[2]. 

You can see the data for Illinois at the SSTI page for Illinois.  The data show that Illinois companies have raised roughly $440 million per year since the last bubble year of 2000, which sounds decent, until you realize that Illinois companies only attract, on average, 1.59% of all VC dollars - across all stages - raised in the US.  The average number of Illinois VC funding deals per year for the 2001-2008 period is 70.5, which is just 1.99% of all deals in the States.  (Here's the page for the US data.)

These numbers aren't any prettier for Illinois startup companies.  For the 2001-2007 period (there is no by-stage data for 2008 available on the SSTI state-by-state breakdown pages), Illinois startups raised a total of just $56.7 million, a pittance of just $8.1 million per year.  It's even worse on the per-deal statistics: Illinois had a total of just 32 startup fundings for the entire seven-year 2001-2007 period.  That's an average of just 4.6 startup fundings per year.  The total startup funding across the entire US for the 2001-2007 period was $5.6 billion, with a total of 1,845 deals over the seven-year span.  That's an average amount of $740 million per year and average number of 264 startup fundings per annum across the entire United States. 

That means that Illinois companies, on average over the seven years, raised just 1.74% of the seed money and did just 1.09% of the startup deals done nationwide.  This, despite the fact that Illinois has 4.24% of the US population.  For just the smallest startups that organizations like DCEO and the ITA should be helping the most, Illinois is getting less than half of the dollars and doing less than a third of the deals that you would expect for a state of its size.  (It's still less than half for dollars and deals overall, as well.)

The numbers are just as embarrassing when you look at Illinois relative to the other states in the nation rather than just the United States as a whole:

(Slide 4)

(Slide 2)

Illinois ranks an average of 16th among the 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico in startup dollars for the 2001-2007 time period.  Illinois did a bit better and averaged a rank of 13th in startup funding deals for the period. (Illinois' median for dollars was 14th and its median for deals was 11th.)

However, again, these figures favor the larger states over the smaller states; i.e. you'd expect California to be the leader in both categories (and it was) since California has the most people.  To really compare, we must look at the states on an apples-to-apples basis by looking at the per capita figures: 

(Slide 3)

(Slide 1)

It turns out that the per-capita figures are even worse for Illinois than the non-normalized figures.  Illinois averaged just 20th amongst the 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico in startup dollars per capita for the 2001-2007 period.  Illinois averaged a pitiful 23rd in startup deals per capita for the 2001-2007 period.  (Illinois' median for per-capita dollars was 18th and its median for per-capita deals was 24th.)

States that consistently beat Illinois in the rankings include Colorado, Texas, and Washington, to say nothing of California and Massachusetts.  However, even states like Maryland and Pennsylvania consistently beat Illinois' rankings on all four measures - startup dollars, startup deals, startup dollars per capita, and startup deals per capita - year after year after year.  On a per-capita basis, states like Connecticut and even New Mexico consistently outrank Illinois in dollars and deals.

By the way, Illinois' average rank in dollars for 2001-2008 (remember, SSTI has total figures for the 2008 year) - regardless of stage - was 13th, and its rank in deals was also 13th.  Again, the average per-capita rankings - the better apples-to-apples comparison - was much worse.  Illinois' average per-capita rank in dollars raised for the 2001-2008 period was 22nd, and its per-capita rank for deals done (again, for all VC deals regardless of stage) was also 22nd, both barely over the median - a median artifically low due to states like Wyoming and Alaska that see no venture activity, year over year.  Illinois is actually below the median when you exclude the inactive states - shameful.

That's just not leadership.

The data are clear - our technology organizations have failed to do their jobs and changes need to be made to make Illinois more hospitable to technology startups if the state has any chance at competing in a 21st century economy.  

Footnotes:

[1] Let me be clear: I fully acknowledge that one can grow a startup without raising outside funds.  However, I believe that those are exception cases, not the rule.  More importantly, I believe the environment that allows for funding is also the best environment for a bootstrapped startup.  In other words, the plural of anecdote is not data.


[2] Data geeks: I fully acknowledge that the MoneyTree data excludes deals done solely by individual investors (angels); however, 1) this is the best objective data I could find and 2) my guess is that individual investors would only further demonstrate the conclusions I'm about to make.  Feel free to grab your own source MoneyTree data and run it yourself.  I couldn't find industry breakdowns by state, and I believe that the overall data is plenty clear about the conclusions to be drawn.

       
Click here to download:
Illinois_So-Called_Tech_Leader.zip (81 KB)

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